Issue 006 is here — the weekly business newsletter brought to you by Pretus. The free platform that helps you master the finance recruiting cycle with AI-driven interview prep for IB, CRE, WM, AM, & more + networking, behaviorals, and an exclusive ecosystem with 1 on 1 coaching and insights you can’t get anywhere else.

The S&P 500 opened Monday at 7,537, up roughly 9% on the year, and the Dow set a record close at 53,055. Then Iran happened.

Trump declared the ceasefire effectively over. The US resumed strikes. Three commercial vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil spiked 6% in 48 hours: Brent hit $78.53 per barrel, WTI reached $74.60. The Dow shed 600 points in a single session. Markets that had been grinding toward record highs hit a wall.

Then Thursday, analysts started pointing out that neither side actually wants full-scale war. Both countries have strong incentives to return to negotiations. Oil pulled back almost as fast as it spiked. The week ended roughly where it started, minus a lot of stress.

While all of that was happening, SpaceX quietly became the fastest company ever added to the Nasdaq-100. It IPO'd on June 12. It joined the index on July 7 — 15 trading days later. Nasdaq's new fast-track rules made it possible, and JPMorgan estimated the inclusion triggered $4.3 billion in automatic buying from ETFs like QQQ and QQQM. When a stock enters the Nasdaq-100, every fund tracking that index has to buy it, not because of valuation, not because of conviction, but because of rules. Semiconductors dropped 4.5% the same session as money rotated to fund the purchase.

Goldman Sachs has cut roughly 3,000 people in 2026. Morgan Stanley cut 2,500 in March. Both are on track to report record profits when earnings drop next week.

The cuts are concentrated at junior levels. And the reason is not a slow market. M&A is recovering. Deal pipelines are moving. Banks are cutting junior headcount because AI is absorbing the work that junior analysts used to do. One analyst running AI now produces what three analysts produced two years ago. A tool like Kimi Work can complete in 20 minutes what once took a team of analysts three days.

What's being automated first: deck building, data reconciliation, model formatting. The foundational tasks that historically trained incoming analysts are the first to go. Goldman's president called the analyst pool a "human assembly line ripe for automation." Jamie Dimon said AI "will eliminate jobs." These are the people running the banks that recruit you.

The practical result: banks are shrinking summer analyst classes by up to two-thirds. Not at every bank, and not uniformly. But the trajectory is real. Major institutions are expecting smaller incoming classes this cycle than at any point since the pandemic hiring freeze.

Here is the other side of that: the banks that are hiring are moving faster. Applications are opening one to two weeks earlier than last year. More firms are using AI-powered screening and HireVue from the first round. The funnel is narrowing, and the filter is getting applied earlier.

The question for anyone going through this cycle isn't whether AI is changing IB recruiting. It is. The question is whether you are positioning yourself as the analyst who runs the AI or the one it replaces. That distinction is showing up in offer decisions right now.

The students getting seats are the ones who walk into interviews understanding the market, the model, and the tools — not just the technicals. That is exactly what Pretus is built for. If you are not already on the platform, start now. heypretus.com.

Q2 2026 earnings season officially opens Tuesday with JPMorgan. Analysts are forecasting $5.44 earnings per share, up 9.7% from the same quarter last year, on $49.5 billion in revenue. Goldman reports the same day. Bank of America, Citi, and Wells Fargo follow through the week.

Across the financial sector, analysts are expecting 12.5% EPS growth and 8.1% revenue growth for Q2. Those are strong numbers. But the details inside the reports are what actually matter.

Three things to watch when these drop.

IB fee revenue. If advisory fees and underwriting revenue are up, the M&A and IPO recovery is confirmed, not just anecdotal. If fees are flat or down, the deal activity narrative is thinner than it looks. SpaceX's June IPO alone generated substantial fees; the question is how broad the activity was.

Trading revenue. The Iran escalation, the SpaceX index inclusion, the tech rotation, the rate environment, all of that created volatility this quarter. Banks with large trading desks tend to profit in volatile markets. Fixed income and equities trading revenue will reflect whether that played out.

Net interest margin. This is the spread between what banks earn on loans and what they pay on deposits. With the Fed funds rate sitting at 3.50–3.75%, margins have stabilized, but any commentary on rate direction from bank CEOs will move markets.

Bank earnings are not just a stock story. They are the clearest picture of what actually happened in financial markets last quarter. Every banker you will meet this recruiting season works inside a business that is about to show its cards. Knowing what those cards say, and what they mean, is the difference between a candidate who sounds prepared and one who actually is.

Forward this to someone who needs it. More next week.

— Clip’d by Pretus